Fuling mustard (002507): Cost dividends continue to look forward to sinking channels
Fuling mustard revenue growth in the first quarter reported3.
8% / 35.
2%, revenue increased slightly, cost staggered dividends continued to increase performance. Looking forward to the next few quarters, the company worked hard to promote channel sinking, and its efforts exceeded the 13-year round, driving the second half of the year to increase revenue growth and benefit.Due to the ongoing cost dividend, it is expected that the expected results will remain flexible.
As the expectations gradually exceed the expected reasonable level, it is recommended to actively arrange segmented investment opportunities.
It is expected that the sinking of the channel will drive subsequent growth, and it is recommended that the industrial moat be deployed for a long time and maintain EPS0 for 19-20 years.
13 yuan, “carefully recommended-A” rating.
Fuling mustard released a quarterly report: total revenue in the first quarter of 20195.
2.7 billion, an annual increase of 3.
8%; net profit attributable to mother 1.
5.5 billion, an annual growth of 35.
Accounts received in advance were 97.88 million, a decrease of 45 per year.
47%, receivables increased by 2.
41%, which is basically consistent with the growth rate of income.
The gross profit margin increased to 58.
1%, the sales expense ratio decreased by 3%, and the management expense ratio decreased by 0.
3%, driving high profit growth.
Revenue increased slightly and performance continued to enjoy flexibility.
The revenue in the first quarter has improved, which can be foreseen in the decline in the annual advance receipts. 18Q4-19Q1, which is basically in line with the absolute decrease in the advance receipts of 17Q4-18Q1, which reflects that the growth of the first quarter statement and the actual sales growth are basically the same.
Channel survey feedback, the company has increased channel investment to drive sales, it is expected to have a certain driving force for future growth.
On the cost side, due to the price system of 17-year-old cabbage in the first quarter of 2018, the base is relatively high, so 19Q1 still enjoys a cost dividend.
Enterprises generally use the new season of cabbage heads since the middle of the second quarter, and the 19 years of upstream production continued to be high, which means that there is room for downward costs in 19, which guarantees most of the performance flexibility.
Back to the previous round of channel sinking and 13 years, this round of strength dimensions.
The company increased its channel sinking efforts in 13 years, with a positive performance that year, and achieved a high double-digit (18%) increase in revenue, and successfully replaced the alternative channel basis for a 16-year price increase.
This round of channel sinking speed, the number of channel feedback offices, sales staff, and dealers are all planned to double, and the range of action is greater than 13 years. We expect the results of channel sinking to be reflected in the next few quarters.
Expected final expectations to a reasonable level, actively investing in investment opportunities.
The performance of mustard in the first and second quarters of last year increased sharply. There is some controversy in the market about price increases and the sustainability of the performance explosion. We believe that mustard is not a growth industry. Fundamentals will be consumed subsequently. The marginal changes in products and channels will reflect certain substitutions and phased growth.The fallback is in line with our prediction in “Understanding the Three Cycles of Mustard.”
We believe that although the company ‘s 18Q4-19Q1 casual channel 苏州桑拿网 dividends attenuate the opportunity for liquidation, we also see that the company is responding to a poor market environment and is playing a stronger subjective initiative. The 26% growth forecast given in the annual report also reflectsManagement team confidence.
In terms of estimation, the current estimation corresponds to its own high ROE, and the safety margin gradually appears.
In the final channel, the company strives to pull the terminal through promotion and other means. At the same time, the office fission and investment promotion are expanding steadily. We expect that these effects will gradually show in the future, and the growth growth is expected to decline.layout.
Investment suggestion: Expect channel subsidence to drive subsequent growth, long-term layout of industrial moats, and maintain the level of “prudent recommendation-A”.
The upstream scarcity and brand power constitute the company’s moat and also contribute to the long-term bargaining space.
Although the capacity of packaged mustard is not large, but the trend is to change from bulk to packaging, the branding trend does not change, and the trend of increasing the share of leading cities does not change. Although the consumer cultivation of new condiments is slow, the Wujiang brand still hasStrong migration ability.
19 The company’s budget guidance gives the market a positive signal, especially at the cost side, which is expected to continue to enjoy dividends, and the rhythm of revenue is also expected to achieve low before high.
We maintain EPS0 for 19-20 years.
13 yuan, “carefully recommended-A” rating. Risk warning: economic downturn consumption weakens, upstream costs fluctuate