In recent months, global energy prices continue to rise sharply, until early October, natural gas, coal and electricity prices have risen to the highest level in decades. In the context of global liquidity is still flooding, energy prices have further raised the inflation pressure of major economies, increasing the uncertainty of the recovery of the world economy.
In the case of inflation pressure, the main economy is centrally oriented to speed up the pace of monetary policy.
This may lead to fluctuations in the global capital market, and some emerging economies have the end risk exposure, and some economies have risen in the risk of lacking. On October 8, a thermal power station was taken in Frankfurt, Germany.
Xinhua News Agency reporter, the interaction of multiple energy prices and the number of energy prices in the history, and the number of energy prices and other secondary energy prices and other secondary energy prices and other secondary energy prices in this round of global energy stress. .
Natural gas prices have the earliest rising and maximum.
By early October, European and Asian natural gas bases creating new high, about 10 times a year ago. Since October 2020, the price of natural gas has risen more than twice as much as the highest level since 2008. High natural gas prices have a chain reaction to the electricity market, and push high electricity prices. As of early October, Germany’s electricity price has soared to the highest level since the record, which has doubled more than 6 times a year ago.
Lithuania Power Company said recently, Lithuania has increased by 41% in September, reaching 124 euros per MW, and creating new high.
US electricity price has also risen to a new historic. In Japan, the four major electric companies expect the resident price to rise average 13% in the early years of this year. In order to reduce power generation, safeguard power supply, the major markets such as US, Europe and Asia turn on to use coal or oil to generate electricity, leading to coal and oil prices. At present, the price of international coal is about 5 times ago, and the price of crude oil futures in New York has also risen to a new high in the past seven years.
Multi-factor resonance is intensifying that the current energy prices of energy dilemmas are high, not from demand or suppliers to unilateral imbalance, but multiple factors resonance. First, as the world economy recovers from the epidemic, energy demand has grown sharply.
2020 global coal demand decreased by 4%, which was the biggest decline in more than 70 years, but the growth of electricity demand and the rise of industrial activities have led to rebound in 2021 coal demand, of which about 80% come from Asia. In the first half of 2021, the main natural gas and coal market consumption increased by 8% and 11% respectively.
At present, global gasoline demand is only 2% lower than the epidemic, which is more than 10% this year. In view of the fact that international air travel has not been fully recovered, the future oil demand is expected to experience rapid growth process. International Energy Agency expects that the world’s daily petroleum demand will increase by 5.5 million barrels this year, and the demand growth will reach 3.3 million barrels in 2022. At that time, the global demand will reach or slightly over the epidemic.
This is the oil price display card for a gas station taken in Paris, France, October 13.
Xinhua News Agency reporter Jingjing second, oil and gas production capacity is insufficient.
After the emergence of new crown epidemic in early 2020, the world economy was severely impacted, and the energy demand and prices have dropped sharply, forcing production capacity to shut down.
Factors such as supply bottlenecks and recruitment difficulties, once the capacity is turned off, it is difficult to implement and restore it to the original level in a short period of time.
Take liquefied natural gas as an example.
International Energy Agency pointed out in a recent report that in 2020, the global liquefied natural gas production was nearly 50 billion cubic meters, creating a new high. In that, the global shuttlecock production capacity accounted for the total production capacity, which was significantly increased compared to the 2019% and the average of 2012-2019.
This year, the shortage of natural gas in Europe is particularly serious. In addition to the above reasons, it is also affected by geopolitical factors.
Russia is the main supplier of European gas, but this year’s supply has decreased, in addition to domestic demand, there are more than 70% of Russian-European Natural Gas pipelines to pass through Ukraine, Belarus, Poland and other countries. Borrow The export of oil and gas needs to pay huge transit fees, and the geopolitical disputes between Russia and Ukraine, Poland and other countries have continued, exacerbated the tension of landing pipeline transportation. In terms of petroleum production, OPEC and non-Eubei-producing countries reached a reduction in output of nearly 10 million barrels per day last year, which was equivalent to 10% of global production, until it began to gradually increase petroleum production in May this year, but all restored cuts Yield is expected to go to the third quarter of next year.
Third, the global extreme weather is often frequent.
Hydraulic rich areas such as Brazil, Western Turkey have suffered serious drought in the first half of this year, and the hydraulic power generation has increased significantly, resulting in an increase in gas power generation. A global deficiency in the second quarter of this year, the wind power is reduced in the same period last year. Affected by Hurricane, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Galanmia and oil production capacity were largely shut down.
The cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere also affects Russian liquefied natural gas exit.
Fourth, energy transformation cannot keep up with demand. Although in recent years, in response to climate change, multi-country actively develop new energy industries, promote energy transformation, but from current global energy supply and consumption, new energy accounts is still very low, and it is not enough to make up for traditional energy supply and dismissap. At present, a global energy consumption structure is still mainly based on traditional fossil energy, oil, coal and natural gas three – minute world, and 2020 is 34%, 30% and 24% respectively.
The world energy consumption structure has a longer period of time from the transition of traditional fossil energy to renewable energy. Even in recent years, Europe is also developing renewable energy, it is only to more than 2020, the comparison of clean energy exceeds the traditional fossil energy, but water energy, wind energy and solar energy and other renewable energy are greatly affected by the season, climate and other factors. The system is weak, FM, and peak function is limited, so the specific gravity of European fossil fuel generation is still as high as 37%. On October 9th, a thermal power plant that was demolished by the chimney in Berlin, Germany. The impact of Xinhua News Agency reporter Single Qihe Energy Crisis believes that in the context of global liquidity is still flooding, energy prices have soared further promoted the inflationary pressure of major economies, which not only affects people’s consumption, but also Enterprise operations have caused impact, thereby increasing the uncertainty of world economic recovery. The International Energy Department pointed out that the natural gas and coal shortages of large economies have soared, which may cause the oil market rebound rate faster than expected, which will greatly increase the cost of high-energy consumption, leading to industrial activities and the world economy The rate of recovery in the epidemic slowdown.
In Europe, many companies may face a dual impact of energy cost rises and consumer spending decline. The continuous increased electricity price has been influenced by the operation of the power-intensive industry, and a number of companies temporarily cut the production of ammonia and chemical fertilizers, which is the sharp rise in natural gas prices, resulting in a decline in profit margins. The British Energy Regulatory Institutions Natural Gas and Power Market April said that the recent global natural gas prices have brought huge financial stress to suppliers. Since this year, there have been more than ten small energy suppliers in the United Kingdom, including the provision of energy-free planets for the million families, and a Natural Gas and Power for Wanfang Family.
Clean planet said that the company has been rising cost and the UK energy price sustain specified, which makes its business "not sustainable". In India, economic recovery and related energy demand, resulting in coal shortages, accounting for 80% of domestic coal mining, which has not been able to keep up with demand, and international prices have increased the import. Power plants that rely on imported coal have slowed or even discontinued, and some power plants that rely on domestic coal began to power off.
Although the Indian government strives to solve shortage problems, several states still suffer severe power shortages, affect residents’ life and industrial production.
The US Energy Information Bureau recently issued a report, warning "Americans may pay more costs this winter to keep warm, especially in the case of a sharp drop in temperature."
According to the Wall Street Daily, Morgan Datong economists believe that the rise in energy prices will push the inflation rate in the next few months.
The US Labor Bureau data shows that the consumer price index in September has risen than rising than a year-on-year, touches the high point of 13 years, which has increased more than 5 months for more than 5 months. Considering the global energy supply and demand tension, infrastructure construction cycle, seasonal factors, and short-term growth in energy prices.
Sustained energy shortages have had a greater impact on the world economy, and the multinational government is or planning to adjust policies in currency, financial, trade, industries, etc. to deal with the crisis. On October 1st, a customer cookted a car in a gas station in Berlin, Germany.
Xinhua News Agency reporter Single Qijia said that experts believe that under inflation stress exacerbate, the main economy is central bank or will speed up the pace of tightening monetary policy. This may lead to fluctuations in global capital markets, and some emerging economies are risky, and some countries have risen in a risk of lacking.
The International Monetary Fund warned in its latest "World Economic Outlook Report" that global inflation is intensified, and there is a huge uncertainty in inflation prospects.
If inflation keeps high, the Fed is necessary to prepare an emergency plan with other central banks, and increase interest rates in advance to control prices. (.