This World Destiny (603369): Fifteen Years, Feng Feng Mu Yu Creates Brilliant New Five Years

This World Destiny (603369): Fifteen Years, Feng Feng Mu Yu Creates Brilliant New Five Years

Key points of investment points: This year is the fifteenth year of the company’s national border series, and the first year of the new five-year strategy.

The 18-year growth of the company’s performance exceeded expectations, mainly due to the quantitative change to qualitative change brought about by the market cultivation in the province for many years, the brand’s upward pull, and the channel’s sinking push to jointly promote the release of potential energy.

Looking forward to 19 years, although the increase in bidding products will intensify competition in some markets, the growth momentum of the company’s brand potential will increase. The province’s cultivation of group purchases + sinking to the county to ensure stable growth. The expansion of investment promotion shops in key markets outside the province will gradually enter the rapid market.Harvest time.

Considering that the company will continue to seize the share in the short term, it is expected that the company will enter a rapid growth period in which revenue growth is faster than profit growth.

Company introduction: Rebirth in reform and growth in focus.

Jinshiyuan is rooted in Huai’an, Jiangsu, and has a long history. It was formerly known as Gaogou Distillery. In 1996 and 2004, it created Jinshiyuan and Guoyuan brands, and it continues to grow in innovation.

In terms of shareholding structure, the company gradually implemented shareholdings, with a total of more than 10% held by senior executives, and an adequate incentive mechanism.

In terms of product structure, the company’s “Guoyuan + Jinshiyuan + Gaogou” system covers the full range of high, middle and low prices. Its China Yuan series is the company’s core category, focusing on the second-to-high-end price band. Jinshiyuan and Gaogou focus on mid-end wine andLow-end wine.

In terms of performance, the company’s performance growth has accelerated year by year since its listing in 2014. In 2018, revenue and profit growth reached 27% and 29%, respectively, mainly due to the continuous expansion of the product structure driven by the national border series, and the proportion of special A and above productsFrom 57% in 2013 to 83% in 2018.

Market analysis: The market space is large and continues to upgrade. Yanghe Jinshiyuan shares the next high-end dividend.

The extreme rapid development of this world is inseparable from the superior liquor market environment in the province.

In terms of market space, Jiangsu’s economically developed, high consumption level, alternating business and social activities, and strong drinking culture have jointly shaped about 35 billion liquor markets.

Among them, the sub-high-end price band accounted for the highest proportion, accounting for about 44%. With the promotion of consumption upgrading, the mainstream price band in the province was further upgraded to more than 300 yuan, and the sub-high-end price is expected to continue to expand.

In terms of competition pattern, the Jiangsu liquor market is close to a fully competitive market, and local brands compete with hundreds of national brands. In terms of regions, northern Jiangsu and southern Jiangsu have different patterns. The northern Jiangsu market is closed and the real estate wine is strong.The main brands are Sunan, which has a high degree of openness and does not have a strong real estate brand. Therefore, there is a three-legged layout of Su Jiu, Hui Jiu, and Chuan Jiu. In terms of price points, foreign brands (gujingkouzi / maowujianjian) are in the high-end and high-end markets.(Lang) has performed strongly. The layout of Yanghe and Jinshiyuan in the sub-high-end market is earlier, and consumers have grown more mature. This is sufficient to fully share the sub-high-end expansion bonus brought by consumption upgrades.

Core competitiveness: brand + channel two-wheel drive, insist on doing the right thing in the right direction.

The rapid development of the company is inseparable from a good track, which fundamentally determines the company’s internal core competitiveness.

1) In terms of brand power, the company’s brand positioning is clear, with clear demands, national fate, present-day fate, and Gaogou respectively position political and business affairs, festive celebrations, and daily consumption, which can meet the needs of various target groups, while performing extreme marketing around fate culture.Culture is the inherent driving force that keeps the company moving forward.

2) In terms of product power, the company’s target products focus on building core single-products around the mid-to-high end. Guoyuan, Jinshigou, and Gaogou focus on creating old series, collection series, and blue-and-white series to promote outstanding performance in various price bands.Pricing is based on a supplementary strategy. By offsetting the price gap between Yanghe’s main products, it obtains a cost-effective advantage at a lower price than competing products.

3) In terms of channel power, the company conducts in-depth sales co-ordination around integration, sinks to counties, and divides products into regions and manages based on refinement, which is conducive to deeper and more meticulous market expansion. At the same time, it adheres to the group purchase model and cultivates the core of politicsThe crowd comes to drive mass consumption, and the Nanjing market is the best case.

Future growth points: full bloom in the province, breakthroughs outside the province, quadrupling in five years to guide the direction.

The company proposes the ambitious goal of “double in five years” with an annualized growth rate of 32%. We believe that this goal is both a challenge and a direction. We explore the struggle path of this goal from the provincial and external markets, respectively: 1)In the province’s market, first of all, the market is generally worried that the development of Yanghe in the province will suppress the growth of this world. We do n’t think there is much attention. Although the degree of competition in some markets will increase, the two sides are essentially in different life cycle stages. Product pricing and channelsDislocation competition in terms of distribution and other aspects will continue to be dominated by benign competition and cooperation, and will jointly enjoy the dividends brought by the sub-high-end expansion in the province.

From the perspective of growth path, we believe that the model of nurturing group purchase + in-depth distribution in the Nanjing market can be replicated in the southern Jiangsu market, and other markets mainly increase the penetration rate through intensive cultivation and sinking to the county.

The company’s intra-provincial market share is only about 10%, and further breakthroughs are expected in the future. It is expected 杭州桑拿网 that the intra-provincial market will continue to grow steadily in the next five years.

2) The market outside the province, the main increase in the market outside the province will come from the 2 + 5 market: in the Shandong market, the focus will be on increasing development through the establishment of a district + M & A Jingzhi, accelerating investment promotion, and spreading the goods. It is expected that in 2019Entering the rapid harvest period; in Zhejiang, Anhui and other markets around Jiangsu, the market is jointly developed with large businessmen, and boots are quickly introduced into their national border products. It is expected to enter the heavy-duty stage in 2020.

The company’s extra-provincial revenue accounted for only 5%, which clearly surpassed the competition. In 2018, the pace of going global was significantly accelerated. The current base is still very low. It is expected that the market outside the province will maintain rapid growth in the next five years.

Investment suggestion: Cover for the first time and give a “Buy” rating.

This year is the fifteenth year of the company’s national border series, and the first year of the new five-year strategy.
The 18-year growth of the company’s performance exceeded expectations, mainly due to the quantitative change to qualitative change brought about by the market cultivation in the province for many years, the brand’s upward pull, and the channel’s sinking push to jointly promote the release of potential energy.

Looking forward to 19 years, although the increase in bidding products will intensify competition in some markets, the growth momentum of the company’s brand potential will be redundant. The province’s cultivation of group buying + sinking to the county to ensure stable growth.One after another has entered a rapid harvest period.
Considering that the company will continue to seize the share in the short term, it is expected that the company will enter a rapid growth period in which profit growth is slower than revenue growth.

We expect the company’s revenue to be 48 in 2019-2021.

56/60.

99/74.

94 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

80% / 25.

62% / 22.

87%; net profit is 14.

38/17.70/21.

50 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

97% / 23.

07% / 21.

46%, corresponding EPS is 1.

15/1.

41/1.

72 yuan, the first coverage, given a “buy” rating.

Risk warnings: Sangong ‘s efforts to suppress consumption continue to increase; consumption upgrades are less than expected; food safety issues.