SF Holdings (002352) In-depth Tracking Report: The Turn Has Come-Moving from Scale Expansion to Profit Increase

SF Holdings (002352) In-depth Tracking Report: The Turn Has Come-Moving from Scale Expansion to Profit Increase
In the process of transforming integrated logistics providers, SF has more expected revenue expansion.The company began to control this measure in the fourth quarter of last year and will gradually release its effect, and its profitability is expected to rebound.In the future, after the Ezhou Airport is put into production, the company will usher in a second period of accelerated development in which costs will decrease and time efficiency will increase.Given that the company is still in a fast-growing period, give 1.6?1.7 times PS, target market value of 1800 ppm, with 20% growth space.Excluding other comprehensive logistics business, the company’s core business aging parts + economic parts profit dynamic PE in 2019 is 30 times. The company’s timeliness is king, growth is improving, and comprehensive logistics is vigorously transformed.SF provides customers with high-efficiency express delivery services through direct-operated 四川耍耍网 network control and freighter air freight, and the company’s time-efficient parts share 50% +.Affected by the macroeconomic pressure, the company’s aging business volume, the total volume growth rate from 39% in Q1 last year to 7% in Q1 this year.However, starting from Q2, the company’s aging growth rate improved month by month, driving the Q2 piece volume growth rate back to 11%.The company accelerates the transformation of integrated logistics providers, targeting the 13 trillion logistics market. At present, the heavy cargo / cold chain / pharmaceutical logistics / same city / international business ranks industry No. 2 / Industry No. 1 / Industry No. 2 / Industry No. 5 / Industry No. 3 respectively.In March of this year, SF completed the acquisition of the DHL supply chain business in China, supplementing the important 南京桑拿网 puzzles of integrated logistics. It is expected that the revenue will gradually or thicken 4.3 billion yuan. Short-term point of view: Multi-expected management and control costs, performance recovery can be expected.The company has been in the period of new business development in the past few years, with high costs and weak profits. Last year, the company’s gross profit / deductible net ratio decreased by 2 as well.2/1.4 pieces to 17.8% / 3.8%. In the fourth quarter of last year, the company adopted comprehensive control measures, such as strategically shrinking poorly profitable businesses, launching a car-cargo matching platform to reduce transportation costs, establishing SF Express to promote refined independent management of heavy cargo, and launching special preferential economic products for fillingThe cost is reduced, and the control effect is expected to appear. It is expected that the company’s profitability will pick up in the second half of the year.This year’s Q1 company’s gross profit margin has increased by 0.4pct, the effect of controlling the cost has begun to emerge. Mid-term turning point: The day when the Ezhou Airport went into production, when the company’s development changed.Compared with the point-to-point network, the axis-radial transportation network has the advantages of short total distance, simple route network, and high freighter loading rate. It is estimated that when Ezhou Airport is opened, it will be equipped with nearly 100 own freighters. The conservatively estimated SF operation cost will drop by 20%, and the time limitFurther improvement (at least the ability of launching Ridar products and expanding the coverage area of Ridar products next day).Downward costs support the company’s price decline, and the improvement of timeliness will consolidate the company’s service quality advantage. It is expected that the SF cargo volume will accelerate its growth and the company will enter the second accelerated development period of qualitative change. Compared with the international logistics giant UPS, SF PS is estimated to be low, with a target market value of 180 billion.The logistics giant’s PS / PE estimates the hub to be 1.5x / 20x. Although SF’s dynamic P / E ratio is 29x higher than UPS’s 20x valuation hub, but because SF is currently in the business development period and the profit side is under pressure, the P / E ratio indicator cannot truly reflect its performance and competitiveness.Therefore, we use a commercially available step-by-step SF estimate, considering that the company’s revenue is expected to maintain a CAGR of 15% + growth rate in the next 3 years, while UPS enjoys an average annual growth rate of 5%.5 times PS, give SF 1.6?1.7 times PS, with a target market value of 180 billion. Risk factors: macroeconomic pressure; new business expansion is less than expected; labor costs increase; airport construction progress is expected gradually; competition is intensifying. Investment suggestion: Considering the outstanding effect of SF’s subsequent control, the gradual effect of the new business will gradually increase, and profits will gradually rise; at the same time, the main business of aging gradually causes the income economy to stabilize and increase, and the new business maintains high growth. The 21-year EPS forecast is 1.15/1.41/1.80 yuan (previous forecast was 1.07/1.32/1.72 yuan), corresponding to PE is 29/24/19 times.Give SF 1.6?1.7x PS, target market value of 1800 ppm, maintain “Buy” rating.