Shanghai Jahwa (600315): Q3 revenue is expected to be slightly lower, anticipating double eleven to promote growth

Shanghai Jahwa (600315): Q3 revenue is expected to be slightly lower, anticipating double eleven to promote growth

Investment Highlights Event: The company announced that it achieved revenue 57 in the first three quarters of 2019.

35 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

81%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

40 trillion US dollars, an annual increase of 19.

09%; net profit of non-attributed mothers 3.

80 ppm per year 2.

00%.

Revenue in the third quarter was 18.

1.3 billion, with annual value added 3.

28%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

96 ‰, a year-on-year decrease of 29.

55%; deduct non-attributed net profit1.

19 ‰, a year-on-year decrease of 11.

33%.

The gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters were 61.

63% / 9.

42%, -1 each year.

1淡水桑拿网6pct / + 1.

05pct.

Revenue growth in the first three quarters of 19 was 5.

81%, 3Q revenue growth rate 3.

28%.

Sales growth has increased, initially because the two largest brands, Herborist, have grown at the same rate, with the growth rate of Liushen increasing by only about 2%.

In terms of brands: 1) The growth rate of Herborist has been flat in the first three quarters, and it is expected that the gradual growth rate is expected to achieve growth; 2) The growth rate of Liushen has improved due to ① the temperature of Liushen’s main sales area has increased, and ② the focus on developing shower gel marketThe competition is fierce. ③ Liushen’s online channel promotion efforts will increase the impact on offline channels, and the coordination between channels needs to be optimized. 3) At the beginning, Jia’an, 合肥夜网 Yuze, and Pianzai realized 30% -50% growth.It still takes time; 5) The small number of US and Canadian nets declined in the first three quarters.

In terms of channels: 1) The growth rate of e-commerce GMV is 27%, the revenue of billing is 19%, and the special channel has achieved a 60% growth, with an online share of 22.

5%; 2) Supermarkets, mothers and babies, and CS increased in the first three quarters; 3) Department store channels were under a lot of pressure, and revenues dropped by two.

Net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 5.

40 ppm, an increase of 19 in ten years.

09%; net profit of non-attributed mothers 3.

80 ppm per year 2.

00%.

The overall improvement in net profit from the first half was mainly due to the third quarter revenue growth rate.

Net interest rate increased by 1.

05pct, mainly from 1) Non-recurring profit and loss is 1.

61 ppm, mainly for biotechnology relocation, government subsidies, etc. 2) Gross profit margin is 61.

63%, down by 1 every year.

The 16 points were mainly due to the operation of the newly added new factory.

The increase in the proportion of sales of high-margin beauty products in Q3 increased Q3’s gross profit margin1.94pct; 3) The sales expense ratio increases by 0 every year.

27pct, the management expense rate drops by 0 every year.

42 points.

The company’s inventory turnover rate increased and the accounts receivable rate decreased.

The company’s inventory at the end of the third quarter was 9.

5.9 billion, down 8 a year.

28%, inventory turnover days decreased by 22 days to 118 days, reflecting the company’s understanding of inventory management and better inventory management level; accounts receivable was 12.

61 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

59%.

Herborist brand: In the second half of the year, the company focused on promoting Herborist, focusing on the essence of Tai Chi.

Herborist supplements and upgrades Taichi Sun and Moon Essence in the second half of 2019. Currently, marketing has started, and marketing has achieved better results. The offline department store channels have recruited more than 50% of new products. It is estimated that Taiji Essence single products will occupy an area of sales time and the proportion of brand revenueOver 15%.

In 2020, the company will continue to complete the Tai Chi Chi star line.

The company will launch Tai Chi Water, Tai Chi Eye Cream and upgraded version of Tai Chi Face Cream and Tai Chi Dan next year to improve the completeness of the star line.

It is expected that the completion of the star line, the revenue share of Taiji series is expected to increase to 25%.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: The brand matrix has been integrated and perfected. In the future, by increasing brand power, strengthening platform power, expanding brand matrix, fine-tuning EPS in 19-21 is 0.

90/1.

02/1.

22, the PE corresponding to the closing price of 2019/10/24 is 39/34 / 29x respectively.

Give a “prudent overweight” rating.

Risk warning: the improvement of the consumption capacity of the third and fourth tiers is not up to expectations, the promotion of Herborist Taiji essence is not up to expectations, and the domestic optional consumption growth rate has slowed down.