Jiuyuan Yinhai (002777): Net profit from reduction of impairment losses increases by 87% annually
Investment highlights: Event: Jiuyuan Yinhai released the third quarter report for 2019, and the company’s operating income for the first three quarters4.
95 ‰, an increase of 17 per year.
57%, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 84.23 million yuan, an increase of 41 every year.
Opinion: The growth rate of the net profit of asset restoration and credit impairment losses is as high as 87%, which is much higher than expected.
1) The company achieved net profit attributable to its parent in the first three quarters of 84.23 million yuan (+41.
69%), 22.32 million yuan (40%) in the third quarter alone, and continued to accelerate approximately in the second quarter (36%); 2) At the same time, the company suffered a total of 1,061 million impairment losses in the first three quarters.402 million due to bad debts; the company ‘s historical revenue is mainly derived from the government, and the actual situation of bad debts that cannot be recovered is reduced. Impairment losses in the first three quarters of 19 may be subsequently reversed. If the impairment losses are restored, the first threeQuarterly net profit increased by 87%; 3) We forecast net profit of 81 million yuan in the first three quarters. Actual net profit exceeded expectations. It is estimated that new business sectors such as Jinmin Engineering and Housing Finance will accelerate their contribution performance in 2018.
Revenue is slightly lower than expected, but attention should be paid to the improvement in gross profit margin and product structure improvement.
1) The company’s operating income for the first three quarters4.
95 ‰, an increase of 17 per year.
At 57%, our democracy expects a revenue of 5 in the first three quarters.
02 trillion, lower-than-expected revenue growth rate; 2) But the gross profit margin in the third quarterly report was 56.
08%, gross margin for the same period of 18 was 44.
63%, gross profit ratio increased significantly in the same period last year!
3) It is expected that the increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to changes in revenue structure, system integration revenue continued to decline, and software development and operation and maintenance services revenue continued to rise. At present, the company’s gross profit margin indicates that the software proportion of the company’s products has been higher.
The balance sheet is basically stable, and the receivables during the expansion period are slightly inflated. The increase in expenses during the period has caused short-term deterioration of cash flow. Pay attention to the repayment situation in the fourth quarter.
1) The company’s government civil affairs, provident fund and other orders have increased since 2019. At the same time, in order to expand the peak period of medical insurance informatization construction after 2020, the overall report shows the income of the expansion period; 2) The company expands sales and R & D personnel reserves after 2019Expenses have been increasing. Sales, management, and R & D expense ratios are 13.
05%, compared with 11 in the same period of 18 years.
02%; 3) R & D expense rate increased rapidly, but the R & D capitalization rate was controlled, and the proportion of capitalized development expenditure decreased significantly in 18Q3; 4) Government orders increased after 19 years, and accounts receivable increased significantly; 5) PeriodThe increase in expenses and the expansion of accounts receivable have caused the company’s third-quarter report to have a slight deterioration in the matching of cash flow and net profit. We believe that we should pay attention to the situation of repayment after the fourth quarter.
In 19 years, the government sector boom supported high performance and is expected to become the core beneficiary of medical insurance informatization in 20 years.
1) It is expected that the civil affairs business will benefit from the Jinmin Project, and the housing finance will benefit from the construction of the provident fund system. At the same time, it will win the bid in 19 and 20, and the revenue will be reflected in 19, 20, and 21.Construction of medical insurance platform, sharing market space of more than 1 billion US dollars, and market share ranking in the last round of the second round of gold insurance promotion; 3) As a leading medical 深圳桑拿网 insurance IT, we believe that after 2021, the company is committed to pharmacy MIS management, hospital DRGs And other information construction.
Maintain the profit forecast, predicting that Jiuyuan Yinhai’s net profit will be 1 in 2019-2021.
4.1 billion, corresponding to a growth rate of 25.
Maintain the “overweight” rating.