Tongwei (600438): Interim report results are beautiful and long-term high growth is confirmed

Tongwei (600438): Interim report results are beautiful and long-term high growth is confirmed
The main points of the report describe the company’s forecast of net profit attributable in the first half of the year.2-15.200 million, an increase of 55% -65% in five years.Based on this calculation, net profit attributable to the second quarter of 20199.3-10.300 million, an annual increase of 56% -71%. Incident Comment The new production capacity was gradually released to supplement the cost optimization, and the interim report performance increased significantly.The company achieved net profit attributable in the first half of the year14.2-15.200 million, exceeding market expectations.Finally, in the first half of the year, supported by overseas demand, global installed capacity is expected to continue to increase. Against this background, the company’s new capacity is gradually put into production, and production and sales are rapidly increasing.Maintain high profitability; maintain cost advantages in the battery business, and continue to maintain profitability in the context of sharp price declines. The production and sales volume is superimposed with PERC high prosperity, and the battery contributes the main increase in performance.Company Chengdu 3.2GW and Hefei 2.The 3GW high-efficiency battery capacity has reached production one after another, driving the high growth of production and sales in the first half of the year.Expected battery replenishment in H1 20195.7-6.0GW, a year-on-year growth of 90% -100%, of which the restructuring in the second quarter of 2019 is about 3.2-3.5GW, an annual increase of 90% -105%.At the same time, driven by stronger-than-expected overseas demand and strong demand for efficiency, PERC batteries continued to boom in the first half of the year and prices continued to exceed 1.2 yuan / W, the gross margin is expected to be about 30%.Combining the price of silicon wafers with the company’s non-silicon cost calculations, the 2019 H1 battery business is expected to contribute about 9 profit.5-10 million yuan, of which the second quarter of 2019 contributed about 5 profit.5-6.0 million. The combination of product price declines and compact materials accounted for a low proportion, exceeding pressure on profitability.In the first half of the year, the company’s new production capacity was gradually put into operation. It is expected that the sales of silicon materials in the first half of 2019 will be about 1.8-2.0% growth rate, 107% growth of 107% -130%, of which Q2 sales volume is about 1% growth rate, 10% growth of 70% -110%.In terms of earnings, the price of silicon materials 南京桑拿网 fell by more than 30% every ten years in the first half of the year, especially the average price of cauliflower materials fell by 43%.The company’s new production capacity is still climbing. The overall production cost of integration is high and the proportion of dense materials is reduced, which puts pressure on the company’s profitability.We expect the company’s annual business to contribute 0 profit in the first half of the year.6-1.0 ppm, with Q2 contributing 0.2-0.500 million.As the company’s new production capacity continues to climb and release, it is expected that the company’s expected sales will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and its profitability will significantly improve, contributing to incremental profits. The peak season of the industry is about to start, and it is expected that the high volume growth will lead to continued upward profit.Since August, domestic bidding projects have officially entered the construction period, overseas demand is gradually recovering, and the industry will enter a deterministic peak season.As a result, the proportion of dense materials and the increase in cell capacity have further improved. The company is expected to benefit significantly from the peak season of the industry, thereby driving continued high growth in the second half.It is expected that the company’s EPS in 2019 and 2020 will be 0.84, 1.12 yuan, corresponding to PE for 16, 12 times, continue to recommend. Risk Warning: 1. Increased competition in the industry; 2. The installed capacity of the industry did not meet expectations.